The London Market and the science of storms – Episode two

The Science of Storms 

In this series of presentations, delivered by both scientific and industry experts, we take a closer look at what the industry and its clients can expect from upcoming storm seasons, with a particular focus on European flood.

Just looking at Germany as an example, the devastating Bernd flood event following heavy rainfall contributed heavily to the 2021 calendar year of large loss events in Germany. In fact, 2021 was the most expensive year since records began in 1970 for natural catastrophe losses, with over EUR12.5bn ($14.2bn) of insured damage created across the country.

Before we look at the response and measures being taken by the industry to help reassure clients who are exposed to extreme weather events, we begin with the science. 

David Stephenson, Professor at the University of Exeter and Director of the Exeter Climate Systems research centre, who focuses on ‘Storms in the Future’, providing an overview of what we can expect. 

In this presentation, Stephenson discusses:

• How the level of carbon emissions can impact global surface temperatures and the impact of that
• Changes in temperature and precipitation changes for different global warming scenarios
• How similar results between old and new storm models are pointing to systematic events
• How climate change will increase the speed and area of impact of cyclones
• There is a strong correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the area with footprint gusts
• NAO as a key driver of windstorm losses
• Climate change projections could be worse than forecasted as NAO is being underestimated